Year: 2023 | Month: March | Volume 10 | Issue 1

Tomato Price Forecasting - A Comparison between ARIMA, GARCH and ANN

Prakash Singh Badal Abha Goyal V. Kamalvanshi Pramod Kumar and Biswajit Mondal
DOI:10.30954/2394-8159.01.2023.13

Abstract:

Price forecasting is an integral part of commodity trading and price analysis. India is the second largest producer
of tomato in the world after china with production of 21 million tonnes accounting for 11.02% of world’s tomato
production. Tomato is the second most important vegetable crop after potato. Vegetables, especially tomatoes,
need more accurate price predictions due to its perishable nature and seasonality. In recent years, the prices of
tomato have been fluctuating very much. This increases the risk for tomato growers. For this in the present study,
ARIMA (3,1,4), GARCH (1,1) and ANN [14–8-1] models are developed for forecasting of tomato price and amongst them ANN [14–8-1] is found to be the best forecasting model and used this for the forecasting of tomato prices for Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India.



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